Friday, March 10, 2006

The difficulty of the primary election and the general election

For both parties, the primary election voters are the active elements on the ends of the political spectrum. Because of this, the Democrats rush to the left and the Republicans rush to the right for the primaries. Then once a nominee is chosen, it is a race back to the middle to capture the important swing voters, while still trying to keep their own base active and willing to turnout on election day.

From what I have been reading on a number of other blogs, the moderates would like to see Senator Hagel run, the left doesn't because they see him as a tough candidate to beat, and the right dislikes him because he has criticized the President. For Chuck Hagel, in my opinion, the tough fight will be the primary battle convincing the right that they should support him.

Currently, President Bush is still popular with the Republican base. That support has been slipping lately. It presents a problem, though, for the potential 2008 candidates, a point that Paul West makes in his article, For GOP, no clear heir in 2008.
Bush remains popular among Republican voters, particularly those who participate in presidential primaries. As a result, no Republican is expected to mount an aggressively anti-Bush campaign like Patrick J. Buchanan's 1992 challenge to Bush's father. Still, the president's second-term fade in the polls has potential successors easing away.
It will be important for the candidates to state their policy preferences, showing the areas they have agreed with and supported the President, and the ways in which they have disagreed with him. For that, Chuck Hagel is in a good position, as long as he can get the right to listen to him and not dismiss him.

Given this, some time will be spend in the coming weeks to showing Chuck Hagel's solid Republican roots and why conservatives (in addition to moderates) should support him in the primary election.


An article posted today on the New York Times website echoes this notion quite clearly.
Republicans said the complication for these candidates was that Mr. Bush remained highly popular with the party's conservative base, even in the face of deepening concerns across the electorate about his government and his policies.
From Bush's Troubles Weigh Heavily as Republicans Meet

No comments: